On June 27 President Biden and former President Trump faced off in a debate that is largely remembered for one thing: Biden’s 12-second verbal catastrophe where he froze, murmured, and completely lost his train of thought, ending with Biden saying “We finally beat medicare.” Immediately, shockwaves were felt across the nation, especially within the Democratic party, as the American people wondered if Biden was in a good enough physical state to seek a second term. Democrats were desperate for a win going into that debate, but were left in a far more chaotic state then they were pre-debate. For months before the debate, Trump enjoyed polling numbers modestly higher than that of Biden. After the debate, Trump saw polling jump as high as nine percent in his favor.
Trump continued to gain in the polls, all the while many Democrats and independents grew tired of reluctantly supporting the President. But then something that would forever change the state of the race happened.
On July 21, President Biden released a letter on ‘X’ where he remarked, “I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.” Shortly after, President Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination and for the Presidency of the United States. In the week after the announcement the Harris campaign raised $200,000,000 and signed 170,000 volunteers, an unprecedented amount in presidential politics.
Harris now had to name her choice for Vice President. After a few weeks of vetting the candidates, interviewing them, and hearing public opinion, Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Walz has moderate appeal and a midwestern charm that elevated him to the position. Walz rose into the spotlight with just a single word that he used against Trump and his allies: weird. Walz is also a veteran, a former teacher, a former representative of 12 years in a purple district, and Minnesota’s Governor. As a veteran and a formerly A-rated representative by the NRA the Harris campaign put his midwestern, moderate appeal in the spotlight.
Just days after Biden dropped out state-level Democratic parties met to pledge their delegates to Harris. On August 5, the party made it official in a virtual roll call vote where Harris was named the Democratic Party’s nominee for President. To very little success, Republicans combated this process, claiming that the party had defrauded the 14 million people who voted for Biden in the Democratic Primaries.
Going into the Democratic National Convention that was held from August 19-22, Harris and Walz held constant rallies where they switched messaging, igniting the spirits of Democrats and giving independents a new option. To win, the Harris-Walz campaign needs more than just Democrats, and it appears that they’ve been able to court the independent voters that are vital in their increasingly likely victory.
When Biden was atop the Democratic ticket, Trump dominated nearly every poll, leaving little to no path to victory for his campaign. Since he dropped out, polling has virtually flopped. Polling conducted in the two days that followed Biden’s announcement had Harris only one to three points behind her opponent. Jump ahead about a week and Harris is now tied with Trump in just about every battleground state. Times/Siena polling is widely viewed as the most accurate pre-election benchmark.
Battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are required in a Democratic victory. Michigan and Wisconsin have trended for Harris, but Pennsylvania is still within question. Harris may have gained a whole lot of momentum in this past month-and-a-half, but this does not make her victory certain. The swing voters that brought a Trump victory in 2016 are likely to be the same voters who will decide this election, making each and every policy of the respective campaigns so important. These key viewers’ thoughts on the candidates’ debate performances and other things that may appear to be rather insignificant to most other Americans are the things that will decide this election.
By dropping out and endorsing his Vice President, Biden totally changed the makeup of the race, making a Trump defeat much more likely. A victory for Democrats that was nearly impossible is now increasingly probable. Top Democrats quite literally laughed off the notion of a Trump victory in 2016. As America has seen in this election cycle, anything can happen, so neither party should assume victory. Americans of both parties shouldn’t make this mistake in an election as unpredictable as this one.
