A grim outlook for Democrats in an unprecedented rematch
Nearly every reputable source projects former president Donald Trump to win the White House in 2024. Polls, maps, and betting all favor the former President. America is on track for a widely unpopular Biden-Trump rematch.
Republicans put up many challengers to Trump for the Republican presidential nomination. Despite this, many legal challenges, and the January 6th Capitol Insurrection, Trump is set to dominate the nomination contest.
Juxtaposed to Trump, Biden is facing a much more challenging primary election. Biden’s most worrying opponent in the primary, and in the November general election is himself, not any other democratic challenger.
Democrats are anything but enthusiastic by their presumptive nominee. Mental competency, foreign affairs, and economic struggles are among the plethora of issues that cloud a second Biden term.
Progressive Democrats who are dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the war in the Gaza Strip have mobilized to protest Biden by voting ‘uncommitted’ in Michigan’s primary. This movement succeeded greatly for its organizers with over 100,000 Democratic primary goers voting ‘uncommitted’ in the states primary.
The uncommitted movement represents a much larger disdain among young, college-going, progressives that threatens Biden’s reelection effort. Not a single blue vote can be spared in Michigan as polling indicates that Trump holds a lead in the battleground state.
Biden’s path to victory is tricky and Democrats must win in Michigan to secure a second term.
The Biden campaign has offered the State of the Union, an annual address to the Congress and to the nation carried out by the President, as a “campaign reset.” Whether or not this reset will materialize is yet to be seen as the SotU will take place March 7.
In the 2020 presidential election Biden beat Trump 306 to 232 electorates. 2024 is expected to be a closer election than 2020 was with Trump projected to flip the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Many projections, even that of CNN, project Trump to beat Biden.
Democrats regained hope for a second Biden term after the 2022 primary where Democrats held the Senate despite predictions and polls that said otherwise. Following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade Democrats drove a new group, young women to the polls in order to bolden their chances.
Abortion and other women’s rights issues may influence the presidential election as Democrats have been able to capitalize on the issue. In the off-year 2023 Virginia congressional elections Democrats held the state Senate and won control of the state House.
Republicans have been emboldened by state based polls that indicate Trump holds a commanding lead. According to a Times/Siena poll Trump holds leads in the battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and the aforementioned, Michigan.
All of these battleground states are states that carried Biden to the White House in 2020. These polls indicated that Biden is leading by two points in Wisconsin, this being the only swing state Biden is leading in.
In this cycle Biden is projected to win in Pennsylvania, but he will face peril in the other 5 battleground states. Polling isn’t getting better for the Biden campaign either. Trump’s leads are increasing across the country as young democrats, supporters of a Palestinian state abandon their presumptive nominee.
This extensive Times/Siena poll also covered specific issues such as abortion, democracy, the Israel-Palestinian conflict, the economy, national security, and immigration. Of all of these issues Biden is leading in only two. Biden leads on the issue of abortion and the issue of democracy, falling far behind in all other categories.
There are eight months until election day and the Biden campaign will have to make serious inroads if they hope to defeat Trump on November 5, 2024. As the political landscape stands now a red wave is on its way to Washington.
